FAQs
Forecaster Intro.
What is Almanis research and development in?
Behavioural analytics of market microstructure:
prediction market price formation
forecasting accuracy
Combinatorial prediction market structure that improves forecasting accuracy for complex families of forecasts
Ethical and sustainable business revenue models
Forecaster incentive models
Financial asset mispricing under uncertain geopolitical, macroeconomic, or financial events.
How do I become a forecaster and how much can I make?
Almanis is a closed forecaster community that you can join by application and interview. You will also need to undergo a KYC and AML process designed to protect our platform, the other forecasters, and our clients as well as satisfy regulators that we cooperate with.
This is a two-tier process. If you are successful in your application you will be able to forecast on our macro and geopolitical questions.
After a 2 to 6 month probationary period, you may be invited to supply further information in support of entry into the Corporate revenue and earnings collections.
Top macro and geopolitical forecasters can earn GBP 5 figures per annum. Top corporate forecasters can earn GBP 6 figures per annum.
Select “Contact” for more information.
What incentives do Almanis forecasters have?
Financial incentives – we reward their accuracy. Our forecasters are also competitive: they relish the opportunity to keep themselves sharp and see how they stack up against the best in the world.
How far out can Almanis accurately forecast?
Almanis accurate dissent works well under 100 days from event occurrence and best under 30 days.
Is Almanis associated with any academic institutions?
The Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health and The University of Melbourne - Brain, Mind & Markets Laboratory.
What questions is Almanis currently forecasting on?
To find out, try our regular free newsletter and archive on Substack.
Who are Almanis customers?
This information is not shared or disclosed for Almanis and Dysrupt Labs - see Terms and Privacy.
NDA’s cover all client relationships as privacy enhances and protects the performance of the Almanis platform, its clients and their trading positions.
Almanis is an input [in 2021] to over GBP5 Trillion in AUM.
How much is it for what?
Product, pricing and features here
Is Almanis regulated?
Almanis is not regulated - see “Important Notice” in Terms for supporting declarations.
Almanis cooperates with KYC, AML, IRS & equity-related requests from regulators.
Almanis continuously regulates its site and forecaster behaviour.
Forecasters that breach terms of use are suspended or expelled.
Almanis also curates all questions posted. Civil society and civil behaviour are priorities. That means banning trolls and cheats. It also means not asking irresponsible and unethical questions.
Who is on the Almanis team?
Almanis is by the team at Dysrupt Labs. You can find out about them here.
How does Almanis avoid insider trading?
We cover geopolitics, macroeconomics and global markets including individual listed equities.
Common sense tells us that those in possession of inside information have much more profitable forums than ours in which to monetise their knowledge.
Nevertheless, those in our closed community who forecast on listed equities are the subject of a separate KYC and AML process that is available to regulators that we co-operate with.
Our Terms detail our standards, commitments to regulators and expectations from forecasters.
Who does Almanis complement?
Almanis accurate dissent forecasts complement event commentators such as Bloomberg and Reuters, geopolitical advisors like Eurasia and Stratfor, independent investor sites like SeekingAlpha, Investing and Motley Fool, and quant sites like FiveThirtyEight.
Who are Almanis competitors?
We have no competitors for the speed and accuracy of our machine learning forecasts.
For our prediction market forecasts - competitors are polls, surveys, betting markets and traditional prediction markets.
We also like to benchmark and arbitrage our forecasts against Kalshi and Polymarkets.
What is Almanis privacy policy?
Our forecasters’ privacy and the provenance and integrity of our publishing efforts are our foremost concerns.
We respect the identity and all personal data of forecasters, users, subscribers and clients of Almanis and Dysrupt Labs. This information is not shared or disclosed.
Your privacy enhances and protects the performance of the Almanis platform.
Refer to our Terms and Privacy.
What qualifications do Almanis forecasters have and how did Almanis recruit them?
Our forecasters tend to find us. New ones either sink or swim within 4 months. Only our most successful ones make the decision to stick around. They all come from a variety of backgrounds, but they have one thing in common: performance in forecasting over 6 years is their qualification.
We are also confident that the more diverse and larger our panel, the better the performance.
Isn’t Almanis just another prediction market and if so isn’t it an illegal gambling or securities exchange?
No.
Almanis is a new generation prediction market and a publisher. Forecasters are authors/writers. Subscribers are readers.
Our forecasters make predictions using points, not real cash. It is always free for them to forecast. They only stand to gain financial reward, not lose it. Details are in our Terms.
Previous generation prediction markets were often gambling or securities exchanges because forecasters put up their own money (and the prediction markets took a percentage of turnover).
Can I see the platform?
Yes. Almanis App
How do you check for and avoid insider trading?
We monitor the platform continuously, 24/7.
We also apply special screening to those community members forecasting on individual equities.
And we co-operate with regulators on equity-related inquiries when requested.
Is there a mobile app?
If Almanis data is so good, why isn't Almanis trading it?
We are not traders. In the same way that a wheat farmer is not a pastry chef.
However, while our alt-data is not generally a trading system, we have tested the alpha-generating value of our machine learning. It is impressive and consistent - as an input to a trading system.
We successfully arbitrage our forecasts on other platforms as part of our ongoing R&D and platform calibration.
Is a crowd of 800 enough?
Yes. Over 5 years this modified prediction market has worked well with much smaller samples than surveys or polls.
Is there an ideal window in which to act on Almanis forecasts?
Each question has its own unique window of opportunity. But the sooner you receive our machine learning forecast, the greater your ability to tailor your response and strategy proactively.
On average, machine learning predictions are 10 to 14 days ahead of Almanis human crowd forecasts.
What is Almanis policy on cheating?
Some users attempt to manipulate the platform by collaborating or operating parallel accounts in order to distort the market. We call this 'money pumping' and it has no effect on our forecast accuracy, but we counter it by excluding cheats.
What regulatory framework does Almanis operate under?
Owned by slowVoice Pty Ltd, Victoria Australia. The operative entity for Dysrupt Labs and Almanis. See Terms and Privacy.
Can I get the raw data of the market, not the Almanis processed time series?
Yes.
We publish two-time series on any question: both the prediction market 1) crowd and 2) machine learning signals.
A separate market microstructure dataset is available that includes dedicated analyst support for 90 days. Contact us if you are interested in this.
Do you own your data?
Is your data legally obtained?
Can Almanis show me a data dictionary?
Yes. Contact us.
Can Almanis show me a timeline?
Yes. History here
What does the word Almanis mean? Is it Latin?
It is not Latin. It is the first two initials of four of our 12 children, ALex, MAthew, NIcholas & ISabel. ALMANIS.