Operator-staked forecaster panel · Since 2019
Forecasters with track records.
Measured for seventeen years.
Almanis is an operator-staked forecaster panel run by Dysrupt Labs. The panel covers scheduled US macroeconomic releases and selected geopolitical questions. Participants forecast against a stake provided by the operator under a logarithmic market scoring rule, and are scored individually on a transparent track record.
What Almanis is
A long-running, invitation-only operator-staked forecasting platform. The panel covers scheduled US macroeconomic releases — CPI, NFP, GDP, PCE, Retail Sales, Housing Starts — alongside selected geopolitical questions.
900+ active forecasters, curated from 36,000+ candidates over 17 years, with a 7+ year median tenure. Participants are scored individually on a transparent track record. The platform's microstructure — who moves the price, when, by how much, against what historical accuracy — is the raw input for the three-signal data product that Dysrupt Labs licenses to institutional macro buyers.
What Almanis is not
Almanis is not a prediction market in the peer-to-peer sense and is not a brokerage. It is a research and information-services platform.
The operator-staked architecture was chosen at inception specifically to keep the platform inside the research and information-services boundary, distinguishing it from peer-to-peer wagering venues such as Polymarket and from CFTC-regulated event-contract exchanges such as Kalshi.
Participants forecast against a stake provided by the operator under a logarithmic market scoring rule.
Methodology
Peer-reviewed in the Journal of Financial Markets (2024) and eBioMedicine (2023). Independently replicated on DARPA-funded NGS2 programme data.
In March 2026 the divergence and scored-divergence signals were replicated on a structurally different public forecasting venue, establishing that the signal is a property of human behaviour under Knightian uncertainty rather than an artefact of a single platform's mechanism design.
- Divergence between consensus and scored cohortsJournal of Financial Markets2024
- Forecasting under Knightian uncertaintyeBioMedicine2023
- Independent replication on NGS2 dataDARPA NGS2 programme2022
- Cross-platform signal replicationWorking paper2026
Relationship to Dysrupt Labs
Almanis is the data source. Dysrupt Labs is the operating company that runs the platform and licenses the resulting forecaster microstructure data to institutional buyers under NDA.
For commercial enquiries see dysruptlabs.com.
Forecaster recruitment
Almanis recruits forecasters with track records of careful reasoning under uncertainty. The panel is invitation-only; applications are assessed on prior calibration, domain reasoning, and willingness to be measured publicly over multi-year horizons.
Contact
Slowvoice Pty Ltd (ACN 159 759 378), trading as Dysrupt Labs.