Over 100 years old Sir Francis Galton, ran an experiment at a 1906 county livestock fair. He observed 800 people try to guess the weight of an ox. No one person got it right, but he found that the mean of the results was within 0.075% of the correct figure of 1197 pounds. The difference being the weight of a small loaf of bread. The theory of the collective intelligence of crowds was discovered.
News travelled slowly before technology but then everything changed. Analysis of diverse data could be collected and converted into meaningful discoveries. With the rise of the Internet and the arrival of various iterations of what we now call social media it has become possible to create a world in which collective intelligence can be accessed to crowd forecast future events more accurately changing the way we read our world.
Any event can be forecast on Almanis by tapping into the collective intelligence of crowds, who together can outperform even the smartest individual or expert. Collective intelligence is already all around us, just look at Wikipedia where a group of people came together to produce meaningful outcomes. It’s been around a long time, we just haven’t been able to access it in this way until now. By asking the right questions, and crowd sourcing the answers, we can get more accurate forecasts on important global issues. Accurate forecasts means we can all make better decisions. The world just got smarter.