Make a forecast on our NEW almanis market: Will Macedonia hold a free, fair and inclusive national election with the participation of all major parties in 2016?
Last Wednesday night, the deadline for parties to submit candidates for the forthcoming Macedonia elections passed with none of the three main opposition parties having done so. The former Prime Minister and leader of the ruling VMRO-DPMNE Party, Nikola Gruevski, claimed on Friday that the elections scheduled for 5th June would go ahead without them but that a fresh set of elections could then be held shortly after, perhaps in the autumn.
Germany has appointed a special envoy, Johannes Haindl, who appears now to be the key negotiator between all the main parties. In this respect he will take over the role played by EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Hahn who brokered the current (and seemingly doomed) round of elections.
If the election scheduled for 5th June goes ahead it will not lead to a settlement of this question either way. Without the participation of all major parties, the election fails to meet the criteria required for a “true” settlement. With the prospect of further elections to come this year, the failure of these elections to be “free, fair and inclusive” will not be sufficient for the question to settle as false.
- 15th May: Yahoo! News report that VMRO-DPMNE Party leader Nikola Gruevski is prepared to go ahead with 5th June elections without the participation of other major parties.
- 13th May: mk (Macedonian news agency) report no concrete results from initial round of talks between Johannes Haindl and various parties.
Staying Ahead of the News:
- Macedonian State Electoral Commission News (via Google translate)
- Balkan Insight on the appointment of German envoy and mediator Johannes Haindl.
- Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) oversight of in Macedonian elections.
- European Forum for Democracy and Solidarity (an alliance of European social democratic organizations) gives a fuller background to Macedonia’s recent electoral history.