brexit_c

Most of us have had all we can possibly take in regarding the forthcoming Brexit vote. Those who follow the UK political scene closely will be looking to what comes next.

The first order of business will be the matter of David Cameron’s possible resignation – the almanis crowd currently have a 14% likelihood of him announcing it by the end of July. As the results come in on Friday we should expect this probability to shift substantially but where would you put it now if you knew the result already? It’s not obvious. There are arguments that Cameron might have to go even if there is a Remain win and many who say that he would stay on in the event of a Leave vote.

The Conservative Party, while dealing with the inevitable internal post-referendum fractures, are likely to push on quickly with a legislative agenda and there are two big votes rumoured to be coming up before the end of the summer: One on the renewal of the Trident nuclear deterrent and another on additional airport capacity in South East England. Both are emotive issues.

The almanis crowd currently see a 78% likelihood of Heathrow getting the nod on the airport issue. There seems to be a bit of a drum beat building behind this one in the media. They also see a 7% likelihood that Labour MPs will vote to scrap Trident, even though this is the clear direction their leader and shadow defence minister Emily Thornberry are pushing the party. Latest unconfirmed rumours suggest that they will be instructed to abstain.

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