Are you an opinionated person, who always relishes getting into discussions and giving your two cents about the issues of the day? Do you take a keen interest in current events? Do you have a taste for competition? Are you looking to beef up your CV in preparation for your future career? Would you like a way to earn money that doesn’t involve waiting tables or pulling pints?

If your answer to any of these questions is yes, then almanis is the community for you.

Join the first crowd-forecasting site of its kind. We believe that by tapping into the knowledge, perspectives and predictions of the many, we can forecast the probability of future events with unparalleled accuracy. But for it to work, we need your input!

You can get started immediately by signing up here or read on for more information.

How can I get involved?

There are three main ways you can play a role with almanis. The whole site revolves around questions about the future, each with its own (current) probability forecast. Will Assad still be in power by the end of 2016? Will Sweden win the next Eurovision song contest? That sort of thing. We need forecasters: people to tell us what they think the likelihood of those events are. We need question-crafters: people with insight into what the hot button topics really are. And we need commentators: people who can tell us the why, and frame the results into a story. These roles are all suited to different personality types: we want all sorts to get involved. You needn’t choose just one role – you can do all three if you like. Crucially, none of the roles require expertise or knowledge.

Sounds interesting, but what’s in it for me?

Great question. Quite a bit, actually! Almanis is ideal for students because you can…

  • Earn cold hard cash! – almanis rewards accuracy across all of the three main roles – forecasting, question-crafting, and commentating. Every month those that rank in the top ten on the forecasting leaderboard will earn between £60 and £1,200, and those than rank in the top ten on the question and narrative leaderboards will earn between £50 and £400. You can also make money via our badge system which rewards achievements on the site: those who submit good questions, make accurate forecasts and post comments that get endorsed can earn up to £500.
  • Prove your ability, gain experience, and give your career a boost – participating in almanis will give you a concrete measure of your forecasting abilities. The site will show you how you rank against your peers and the wider world. A perennial ‘catch 22’ facing students is the difficulty of demonstrating your skills and experience to potential employers (as opposed to qualifications). Do well on almanis and you will have proof of your analytical abilities and judgment. Imagine if you could show potential employers that you are better at judging geopolitical or economic events than the experts! This can be a real boon to your CV, particularly if you’re looking to go on to work in fields involving quantitative analysis, such as data science or software development.
  • It’s a great way to improve your reasoning, judgment and forecasting abilities – almanis is designed to get you to really think about the likelihood of things in a systematic fashion. It invites you to justify your judgments, to try to put a precise quantity on vague intuitions, and to test your thinking against that of your peers. We spend our entire lives forecasting the future – whether we realise it or not. And the same skills are vital to academic study, regardless of your field. Learning to be a better forecaster can improve your life both personally and professionally

Getting involved couldn’t be easier: with just a few clicks you can start predicting on any topic that takes your fancy. You needn’t commit any more time or thought to your participation than you want to – but be warned, it can be addictive! Click here to register and get going.

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