You have read about us, registered and taken a look at the questions. How to get started? We are having a lot of chats with new forecasters and in those conversations we have identified two things which people need support with.
Firstly, having confidence in their abilities (feeling they are qualified to play!) and secondly, getting going with a practical game plan. So, to help out here are some hints and thoughts to support you in your almanis journey…
“I don’t really see a question I am an expert in” , “ I am not that confident in my opinion – I have one but I am not sure”. Yes. You are not alone. We have heard these comments all week.
Let us reassure you – that is the point. You may be right that you are not an expert, but collectively, your input combined with everyone else’s will make us all smarter.
Here is a quote from James Surowiecki in his book The Wisdom Of Crowds.
“Groups are only smart when there is a balance between the information that everyone in the group shares and the information that each of the members of the group holds privately. It’s the combination of all those pieces of independent information, some of them right, some of the wrong, that keeps the group wise.”
Getting started – a game plan:
Of course you can get going any way you want. But here are some thoughts.
#1 Pick your focus: Work out what type of questions you want to answer. If you have a particular area of interest, set the filters on the question page to match. You might want to focus on geopolitics, industry questions or markets questions. Of course you can also just scroll down the list in the order it presents itself or search for a specific keyword.
#2 Pick a question: If there is one you feel strongly about. Great. Or, you might pick a question because the crowd has moved it in a direction you don’t agree. That’s a great reason because if the crowd is wrong and you are right you stand to win lots of points. Or, the comments might attract you.
#3 Reflect: There is so much information at our fingertips these days. Maybe by scouring the web you will dig up new info, maybe your technique is to think from first principles, perhaps your life experiences gives you a different perspective. Perhaps you will be more interested in the other forecasts and reacting to those.
#4 Act: Depending on your level of confidence, you might find it easier to start right up making a forecast or nudge it with a comment. Up to you. We value your opinion, however you express it.
Most of all have fun!