The president of Mexico has committed his party to introducing legislation allowing for the full recognition and equality for gay marriage. The Supreme Court has already declared discrimination against gay marriage to be unconstitutional. And yet this does not seem to be a done deal – only a 44% probability at time of writing.

The greatest opponent in Mexico appears to be the Catholic Church. According to Catholic news agencies, some within the Church are openly taking the credit for using the issue to damage president Enrique Pena Nieto’s party in recent local elections.

The Church is not the only obstacle facing this legislation though. Graciela Jasa Silveira, a Mexican expert in family law, sums up some of these challenges here. Many of the problems stem, it seems, from Mexico’s federalist constitution which appears to leave family policy in the hands of the individual Mexican states. This poses both a direct threat to the main aim of any federal government bill, and complications in the detail. For instance, no-fault divorces face different challenges in states where such cases have a different legal standing.

This is one market we should be watching closely. Make your forecast on the almanis market: Will Mexico legalise same-sex marriage?


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